Originally Posted by
limitreached
Hi Gregg.
I appreciate your professional opinions. Thank you.
You're Welcome
This thread and entire topic is quite intriguing. Aside from the obvious "pumpers" you got a lot of very different theories. ...and call me ignorant but that Rudy guy sounds so educated and so damn convincing, I honestly was shocked to hear that he's such a scammer and con. That's just amazing to me!!
A good con man always sounds like he knows what he' talking about, except to people who DO KNOW what he's talking about, to us, he looks like, well...a con man
Anyway, when trying to research the topic of IQD in order to form an unbiased opinion, boy is it hard to get past all the BS so called evidence for a future "RV".
No, there's plenty of places where no one is trying to sell you something, or the baord is not dominated by a combination of stupidity and greed. @3 States Attorneys General have web pages warning consumers about Iraqi Dinar scams, several sites I know of explain how the sites claiming to be 'licensed by the US Treasury" are indeed licensed, to sell collectors items or to provide travel needs for people traveling to Iraq. Or that this license is not all that is required even for that, the ones selling under the MSB license have to have separate State Licenses in 41 states and none of them is permitted to sell currency as an investment (you need a Series & for that). Think about that, every site that says htey have some odd permit that didn't tell you what I just wrote is maybe breaking the law in any state they operate in or ship to, but they are definitely lying to you about their "license". And that is information available in several places. You could go to any number of places and get the true facts about how money works, or find the true story I posted above how this sin't anything like the Kuwaiti Dinar situation, which wo many years ago is how these pumpers got started, telling everyone it was gonna be just like Kuwait. You knew that, didn't you?
But there does seem to be some solid evidence supporting a substantially higher future value for the IQD.
No there is not. The Iraqi Dinar is now, under agreement from the IMF, artificially supporting the value of the IRD @ 1170 give or take to promote stability. If it was allowed to float today it would drop to about half of what it is.
And this supposed evidence makes not investing at least some time into formulating your own opinion hard not to do.
I can agree to that, if you can agree that the 16 years I spent studying monetary policy at the graduate, doctorate and post doctorate level counts as a form of research. At least as much as any guru has... And my carefully considered professional opinion is the best return you will get in this lifetime on IRD is wait for a real cold day, turn off your furnace and burn them in the BBQ whilst you huddle around them to keep warm while you save whatever the gas bill was gonna be for however long you can stand it.
I think I owe it to myself to at least do some research, just in case.
Have at it, Sparky, but PTR and Planet DInar don't count as research, try finding 10 different examples of the things I mentioned above and other than those, don't give any weight to any findings from people named 'Scooter" "tarheelgirl" Okie" or prettymuch anyone whose scholarly research such as it is is signed by what looks like their CB Radio Handle
What if??
Lets do one little "What if" just to make a point. The US Debt (not the deficit, which is any one year's bill, but the debt, which is all of them added up since Andrew Jackson was President (he was the last one to have paid it all off, it's been accumulating since then) is currently $14 trillion dollars and odd change. There are in circulation (notes and coins) in Iraq 31 trillion Dinar. If Iraq were to RV the Dinar, they have to RV all of them, not just the ones you have in your special envelope in the safe, but all of them, in and out of Iraq. In order to give everyone who wants to take advantage of the RV their money, they have to have that money in their foreign reserve account. TO RV to par to the dollar, obviously, would require the CBI to have, in cash, $27 trillion dollars, or since that many dollars don't actually exist, some combination of Dollars, Euro, Yen, Yuan and good old fashoined gold bars. (another hint, if you deduct the gold in Ft Knox and in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, there also isn't enough gold on the planet to payout $27 trillion) and this is just for a $1 RV. Multiply as needed for the nutcases calling for $8, $11 and even $13 I have seen quoted.
You have the seemingly obvious fact that the Iraq economy is doing better now than there were when their currency lost it's value.
No it's not. Before it lost it's value, Iraq was a nominal nation pumping a lot of oil and not spending a mot of money to do that, or make it's leaders rich or blowing most of it on flashy military equipment. Then Saddam Hussein did all of the above, printed more notes by a factor of 1000, closed foreign exchange in country to all but a select few and then started a "War of the Week" club. But it was the inflationary expansion of the Dinar that caused it to be "officvially" worth $3.22 when on the black market is was bringing a dime to twelve cents. If they're very careful and do a good job, after they drop the three zeros it may actually hold at a level higher than the 12 cents, but that's a long term bet. Of course, that's also about 11% of what it's at now. So long term, you'll lose 89%, plus the split.
By way of the incredibly willing support of the US and UN and the investments made by other countries Iraq does appear to be truly heading in the right direction and I'm not sure that anyone could dispute this.
Mugli Al-Sadr intends to dispute this, just as soon as the last US troops leave Iraqi Airspace. If he wins, you're wll and truly screwed because he will first by taking power cause the collapse of the CBI making their notes near worthless compared to the near worthless they are now. He might also declare Shiara banking conditions that pretty much mean dinars held by evil residents of the great satan USA don't get squat. And even if he loses, you do of course know that the government has proposed and intends to actually do a re denomination of the currency where a 1,000 old note will be equal to a 1 new note, the old notes will expire and be just pretty pieces of paper in 6 months and in order to trade your old ones for new ones, you're gonna have to go to Iraq in person, as it will be illegal to do it for others, and you will also be restricted to how much a day you can exchange as well as how much total you can take out of the country? Whatsamatter, your guru didn't tell you that part? How about the possibility that in addition to those requirements, the GOI just may impose a tax on any non resident exchanging Dinar, say 30%. That has happened before.
From my understanding their currencies value tanked due to, among other things, sanctions placed on their trade, bankruptcy, and due to the confiscation of large amounts of their countries assets formerly controlled by the Suddam regime.
Your understanding is wrong, see above about printing the bejeezus outtta your currency without increasing economic output
Now they have a government in place, as long as the ammo holds out they have regained control of a lot of their formerly confiscated assets, as long as they have loyal, obedient and viable civilian and military infrastructures to protect them they are talking about pulling themselves out of bankruptcy, that's a Dinar Board Urban myth, countries do not and can not be bankrupt, they merely default and other nations (U.N., etc.) seem to be willing to allow them out of BK. They are getting closer to being released from certain sanctions, the current schedule to repatriate all of the stolen wealth settlements to Kuwait run up to 2038, so it's only 26 more years till that happens Also, they have a ton of resources including more known oil reserves than they had before the war when their currency was valued far above what it is now. A misnomer, when the currency was valued higher than it was now, their was only about 1/10th of 1% as much of it, so it was higher pre dinar, but the aggregate was lower. And they have a good amount of trade resuming. 92% of the GDP is oil, a commodity over which they have no price control, or production quota control and if they pump much more than they now do, the effect on the supply/demand equations would make the amount of money they get for more oil less than what they get now Their GDP may suck and other economic factors obviously suck right now and they are in an extremely volatile part of the world, etc. All things I look for in an investment. Solidity! But it seems a fact that they are doing better now than they have been for many many years, That sounds a lot like the same story the Cincinnati Bengals are telling
which eventually seems as though will be reflected through a greater value to their countries stock and currency. Possibly, if they can just all live iun peace, get along with each other and their neighbors and the Unicorn Crop is better next year This seems as though this may be an investment that may be worth it for some to put a little money into.
See above, put it in the BBQ Not too much of course, a very prudent amount relative to whatever you have, and stay away from the various BS sites and dealers. Sure it may be a long shot. Slightly longer than Pete Rose getting back into to baseball as a player, and leading the National League in triples next year Sure you may not make millions overnight. Listen to the pumpers and you can lose everything you have though It may take years more for anything to mature. Decades, or maybe centuries But as an investment, as long as you stay away from the scams the pumpers the lies and rumors, this seems as though it might be worth socking away some IQD. If you collect pretty pictures The newly printed stuff of course, stay away from the old type with Suddam's ugly mug on it. some of which is worth more now to collectors than the real stuff what else are you going to do? buy BofA stock? j/k. or more gold at $1,800 per ounce? I own 93,000 shares of Ford, with a cost basis of under $1.20 per share, it's been good to me
My serious question to you is: what do you see happening to their currency and to this possible "investment"? I think it's unlikely for it to go down in value. It's directly correlated to gravity, if you take away the artificial support it's setting on (the CBI subsidy) it'll fall like a rock So as their economy improves will it increase in value? If it does go up in value what will stop people ("investors") from making money off it? I truly would love your professional opinion. Their are middle east countries who live off their oil as their one and only meal ticket and they have currencies with incredibly high values! You right there show you don't know what you're talking about. The Kuwaiti Dinar has "an incredibly high value", and yet Kuwait is economically about the size of Indiana. It's not how many dollars per dinar that matters, its how many dollars in total those dinars ad up to. Easier example. For closed today at $11.11 a share GM closed at $24.94...which is the more valuable company? THe answer is Ford, because the shares are cheaper, but there are a lot more of them. Same thing with currency, its not the notes, it's the aggregates. So how do you see it playing out as Iraq continues to develop and mature as a country?
I see the last US Air Force Jet leaving Iraqi Airspace just as insurgents storm the capitol, mass hangings of anyone tainted by co operating with the great satan and Iraq turning into a kindler gentler version of Somalia, where the taxes are low, the government doesn't bug you much if you don't talk bad about them, and ammunition is boith very expensive and a necessity, not a convenience. The Dinar will fade into some neverland pseudo currency and most commerce between people on the street will be in Dollars, Barter or Gold. The Elite will have Dollar accounts in Switzerland and oil will flow at slightly higher than the official OPEC quota, the excess money going towards various levels of corruption. Honestly, that's what's gonna happen
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